How I retire At 50

There are two charts below. Can you identify at which stage of the bull run they are in?  Which one would you invest in? Technology at "irrational exuberance" phase? Oil and gas at "accumulation" phase?

Why am I in O & G? Because I am expecting it is at the start the the first stage of the bull run of oil. First Stage (Accumulation phase): Nobody wants to buy. Bad news keeps coming. But prices are stealthily creeping up. Best phase to buy as prices are very attractive. Second Stage (Public Participation phase): Public starts buying in as good news start to come in. Third Stage (Irrational Exuberance): The last of the investors, the retail investors come in. Only good things can happen at this point. Unfortunately, this is the last leg, and people will be caught buying at top.

I am cautious on tech stocks going forward. I feel most of them are overvalued, and will not have any reason to chase them.

Jim Rogers recently said "We are going back one day, a couple of years from now, and say that in 2015, 2016, 2017 and maybe, even 2018, oil made its bottom.... I don't know what the absolute bottom will be, but oil reserves around the world continue to decline... But after it made its bottom, prices will go higher for a while." I share the same view as Mr Rogers, and therefore my portfolio is heavy on oil and gas. Here's my oil portfolio: Stock Price Bought CJ Energy 34    USD Enerplus 8.50 USD Keppel Corp 6.40 SGD My target is to keep these counters through the entire cycle of the next oil run. May consider taking profit in 2020?

To hunt for capital appreciation, a better is China stock exchange. I think it still has legs to run.

Before knowing if a bear market is coming, it is important to look at the bond yield curve. The current rate is 1.5%. Not to fret yet.